Five Graphs That Show Tony Abbott Is

Tony Abbott’s speech to the International Warming Policy Foundation provides a mix of partial truths which are designed to create a plausible whole.

As one leading climate change scientist noted privately on Tuesday, “most announcements possess the timeless element of fact but once confronted by the usage of proof the statements are accurate but irrelevant, or accurate to some point and then deceptive –  vintage sceptics stuff”.

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Still, there are enough clangers to indicate Abbott either can’t read a graph or is tapping any information source which has escaped the attention of the worldwide climate monitoring bodies to the UK Met Office out of NASA or the Bureau of Meteorology of Australia.

Listed below are some of Abbott’s standout claims, as well as the graphs which don’t stand up well to examination.

“Temperatures in Australia have just improved by 0.3 levels over the past century, not the 1 degree usually claimed,” is just one of Abbott’s statements.

According to the agency and CSIRO’s State of the North 2016, here’s what we’re seeing in Australia:

The only pockets of Australia to have warmed less than 0.5 levels since 1910 are in a few areas in NSW (though not Manly, since it occurs) and Western Australia.

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Staying nearby, Abbott has this to say about sea-level  increase: “More than 100 years of photography in Manly Beach within my electorate does not suggest that sea levels have increased despite reports from weather alarmists that this is imminent.”

Global warming is obvious to the overwhelming majority of scientists, despite what a few deniers would tell us.
Global warming is obvious to the overwhelming majority of scientists, despite what a few deniers would inform us.   Photo: Daniel Munoz

Imagine  as owners submit to the courtroom grainy, future lawsuits  photographs explaining they had no idea what they were buying in to.

Coastal sea-level growth may be unique, but for those wanting to project potential growth, Geoscience Australia presents projections, also for Manly.

Tony Abbott has made another pitch declining the significance to climate change.
Tony Abbott has created another pitch declining the importance to climate change.   Photo: Daniel Munoz

Meanwhile, this easily available advice from CSIRO showing increase is accelerating:  

Abbott may want to familiarize himself with the reasons for this increase in sea levels, for instance, well-understood fact 93 per cent of the excess heat being trapped by extra greenhouse gases finishes up in the sea.

A warmer sea expands. The ice caps, glaciers and sea ice consume about 2 per cent of that extra warmth and most  of the ice melt ends up raising their amounts.

While only 2.3 per cent of the surplus warming ends up in the atmosphere and 2.1 per cent in the land, which happens to be where most of the temperature readings are created and at which our own lives have been lived out.

So here’s Abbott’s interpretation of what’s been  happening, fever wise: “Certainly, no huge change has shown the growth in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration within the past century from approximately 300 to approximately 400 parts per million roughly by 0.03 to 0.04 per cent.”

And if anything is happening, let’s not blame everything on CO2, he’d have us think:   “Evidence suggests that other elements such as sun spot cycles and oscillations at the Earth’s orbit are equally as critical for climate change as this trace gas.”

Blaming sunlight, as it occurs, is clearly one of the best two climate myths  increased by deniers, as stated by the Skeptical Science site, and among the earliest ruled out.

The following graph from that Site will help you to knock a few of the deceptive views of Abbott onto the head:

Solar radiation has been for the previous few decades on a trend, and yet temperatures have continued to climb. And they are clearly much closer to 1 degree higher over the past century compared to 0.3 levels.

This graph, also will help to place this claim by Abbott in to perspective: “The high priests of climate change now appear to indicate that there has been a pause from heating between the 1990s and 2014.”

News Corp commentators such as Andrew Bolt regularly   play up that “no heating” has happened in the previous 10, 15, 18 or so years.

It is possible to see heat 19, by taking the very top of this El Nino year in 1998. But notice Abbott handily concludes forgetting to incorporate the fact that season – a list for heating – was then conquered by 2015 and 2016.

While analyzing a single month infrequently tells us about longer-term trends, September surprisingly set worldwide records according to preliminary statistics even with no El Nino impact.

Abbott would like to have it both ways. Maybe it is not a terrible thing whatsoever, if there’s heating, and if we had to be driving it.

“At least so much, it is climate change policy that’s doing injury; climate change itself is probably doing good; or at least, more good than harm,” he said in his speech.

Australians have been to reside in a country with a highly variable climate, especially.

There are considerable signs of recent heatwaves, including within this spring, to have people worried with rationale about the threat of worse bushfires, among other obstacles.

Recent study  heading to Sydney and Melbourne likely to possess 50-degree days in coming summers was disregarded as “groupthink” by Abbott on Fairfax Media’s 2GB.

As the agency and CSIRO notice in their title, though, Australia has been reporting a substantial increase in the Amount of extreme heat events, with all the stresses on the health of humans (and other animals) that they attract:

As the report notes, extreme days are defined as those above the 99th percentile of each month by the years 1910 to 2015.

“In 2013 there were 28 days over this threshold,” the report said. “This  compares to the period prior to 1950 when more than half the years had no  extreme days.”  

Abbott’s speech made little of this fact it was through his stint as prime minister which Australia signed up to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions 26-28 per cent compared with 2005 amounts.

The assurance “has been a compromise based on the tips that we could attain it mostly through efficiencies, with no further environmental imposts, employing the highly successful emissions reduction fund; because, as I said at the time, the last thing we want to do is bolster the environment (however) hurt our market”.

Quite apart from the ERF being “highly successful” (see here or here), ” Abbott goes on to say this: “Even if reducing emissions actually is vital to save the entire world, our attempt, nevertheless Herculean, is barely better than useless; since Australia’s total annual emissions are exceeded by only the annual growth in China’s.”

Well, it ends up China’s emissions have ever been flat for many years.

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Whether the recent plateau starts to climb again or stays remains to be seen. Truth about the large structure that has already filled lots of the major cities and urban pollution imply returning is unlikely.

Perhaps the graph from Climate Change News is a better header into the tendency of the world’s largest carbon emitter:

It shows increase of energy intake. Fossil fuel usage has a diminishing share of the energy required to drive what will be the world economy.

Giving the cost of solar and wind power continues to decline at a rapid pace – while fossil fuel extraction is if anything becoming more expensive as simple to get resources vanish – it is a fair bet if China’s energy requirement does pick up , coal and oil aren’t very likely to extend the lion’s share of extra supply.