Winter is arriving … later. And it is leaving.
Across the United States, the first frost of the year was coming further and further into the calendar, based on more than a century of measurements from weather stations.
Scientists say it is yet another indication of this changing climate, which it has consequences for the country. There could be many more fruits and veggies — and also more fleas and allergies.
“I’m happy about any of this,” explained Karen Duncan of Streator, Illinois. Her blossoms are in bloom because she has had no frost this year however, just as she had none now either. Near Chicago, she stated it had been hot and buggy to head out — at October, on the flip side.
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The trend of ever after first reverted appears to have begun around 1980, based on an analysis by The Associated Press of data in 700 weather stations across the U.S. heading back to 1895 compiled by Ken Kunkel, a meteorologist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Centers for Environmental Information.
Kunkel compared the first freeze from each one of the 700 stations to look for nationwide trends. Every calendar year some parts of the country experience later or sooner freezes, but on typical freezes are arriving.
An average from 1971 to 1980, and it will be before Kunkel said the trend became noticeable, is not than the typical first freeze throughout the last 10 years, from 2007 to 2016.
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Last year, roughly 40 percent of the Lower 48 countries have had a freeze at Oct. 23, in contrast to 65 per cent in a normal year, based on Jeff Masters, meteorology director of the personal service Weather Underground.
Duncan’s blossoms ought to be d**d by now. According to data from the weather station near her in Ottawa, Illinois, the average first freeze for its 20th century was Oct. 15. The normal from 1981 to 2010 according to NOAA computer simulations was Oct. 19. Considering that 2010, the typical frost is on Oct. 26. Last year, the first frost in Ottawa arrived on Nov. 12.
Last season was “far off the charts” nationwide, Kunkel said. The first frost was two weeks later than the 20th-century average, and the last frost of spring had been nine days earlier than normal.
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Overall the United States freeze period of 2016 was shorter compared to freeze period of 1916 more than a month. It was most extreme in the Pacific Northwest. Oregon’s freeze period was 61 times — two months — shorter than normal.
Global warming has helped shove scientists along with Kunkel said. They may be affected by artificial climate change — although at play, though, are natural changes in air circulation patterns, they said.
This freeze period that was diminishing is exactly what climate scientists have predicted, ” said University of Oklahoma meteorology professor Jason Furtadosaid
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A shorter freeze season usually means less money and a longer growing season. But some plants that require a particular quantity such as Georgia peaches, of chill are also hurt by it, said a University of Arizona ecologist, Theresa Crimmins. Crimmins is director of the National Phenology Network . Phenology is the study of the seasons and the plants and animals adapt to timing varies.
Pests that attack trees and also spread disorder aren’t being k****d off as early as they are, Crimmins said.
In New England, many trees used to because some take cues for when to switch from temperature or aren’t altering colors as they usually do, said Boston University biology professor Richard Primacksaid
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Clusters of late-emerging monarch butterflies have been found far further north than normal at the time of year, and are not likely to survive their migration.
Kevin Trenberth, a climate scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, said natural variability, especially a El Nino, made last year exceptional for an early frost, however “it reflects the type of conditions which is more regular in a two or three” due to artificial climate change.
“The long term consequences are really negative,” explained Primack, because shorter winters and hotter temperatures will also be expected to result in rising seas that cause worse flood during heavy rains.
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In suburban Boston, Primack and his spouse continue eating tomatoes lettuce and green beans. And they are currently getting fresh figs off their backyard tree.
“These fig trees ought to be filled,” Primack said.